The MHRSD Logarithmic Formula Explained
The Developed Nitaqat framework uses a logarithmic formula to determine the required Saudization percentage for each establishment:
- x — total establishment size (employee count)
- m — curve slope, varies by ISIC4 economic sub-activity. There are 2,807 registered sub-sectors
- c — intercept constant, varies by sector and by year (2026, 2027, 2028)
- y — required Saudization percentage (%) that determines band boundaries
The logarithmic shape is deliberate. Larger establishments require proportionally smaller Saudization increases per additional hire than smaller ones. This means a simple fixed percentage (e.g., "30% for everyone") cannot accurately represent the actual curve.
Year-Specific Constants: Why 2026 ≠ 2027 ≠ 2028
With the new Developed Nitaqat phase (effective April 26, 2026), the c constant is split by year. MHRSD raises c values progressively each year to steadily increase Saudization thresholds.
This means the same establishment with the same headcount in the same sector could be in Low Green in 2026 but slip to Red in 2027 without any staffing change — simply because the thresholds increased.
Any calculation tool using a single static c value for all years will show inaccurate bands after the switch date. This is not a marginal error — it can show Green band while the establishment is actually in Red.
Salary Credit Multipliers and Profession Rules
The Saudization ratio is not simply "Saudi count ÷ total employees." Each Saudi employee is counted with a multiplier based on their salary:
- 0\u00d7 (zero) — salary below SAR 3,000: not counted toward Saudization
- 0.5\u00d7 (half) — salary between SAR 3,000 and 3,999: counts as half an employee
- 1.0\u00d7 (full) — salary of SAR 4,000 or more: counts fully
- 4\u00d7 (quadruple) — disabled employees earning SAR 4,000 or more: count as four employees, unless they exceed 10% of Saudi staff
Alongside Nitaqat, MHRSD sets Saudization quotas for specific professions, each with its own wage floor:
- Sales & marketing: SAR 5,500 (60% Saudization, effective April 19, 2026)
- Engineering: SAR 8,000 (30% Saudization, in force since the grace period ended on June 30, 2026)
- Procurement: 70% Saudization (up from 50%, in force since the grace period ended on May 31, 2026)
Any tool that ignores these multipliers and counts only headcount will overestimate the actual Saudization ratio, potentially showing a higher band than reality.
Where Simplified Calculators Break Down
The gap between a simplified estimate and the actual band widens in several specific scenarios:
- Micro entities (≤5 employees): These operate on a pass/fail system, not the logarithmic formula. Calculators that apply the formula to micro entities produce entirely wrong results.
- Sectors with unusual m slope: Some economic activities have steep curves where 10 additional employees can shift the band entirely. Calculators using general averages miss these edge cases.
- Salaries near multiplier thresholds: A single employee at SAR 3,900 instead of SAR 4,000 counts as half an employee (0.5×) instead of one. In a small establishment, that alone can drop it from Low Green to Red.
- Ignoring staggered enforcement dates: Sales rules start April 19, general phase on April 26, procurement on May 31, engineering on June 30. Evaluating an establishment must account for which rules are active at the evaluation date.
Methodology Verification Checklist
When evaluating any Nitaqat calculation tool — whether a spreadsheet, an online calculator, or a full platform — verify the following:
- Does it use the official logarithmic formula (y = m × ln(x) + c), not a simplified percentage?
- Does it cover your specific ISIC4 economic sub-activity?
- Does it apply different c constants for each year (2026 vs 2027 vs 2028)?
- Does it calculate salary-based credit multipliers (0× / 0.5× / 1.0× / 4×)?
- Does it handle micro entities (≤5 employees) with the separate pass/fail system?
- How frequently is sector data verified against official MHRSD publications?
SaudizationMeter implements all of the above: the full formula with 2,807 sub-sectors, year-specific constants, salary multipliers, micro entity rules, and a what-if scenario engine for planning before committing hires.
Phase 2026 Data Confirmed — May 2026
On May 1, 2026, the formula parameters (m and c) for all 2,807 economic sub-sectors were checked against the results Qiwa publishes for the 2026 phase.
- Red band threshold: average +2.37 percentage points vs the previous phase
- Low-green band threshold: average +2.37 percentage points
- Largest increase: retail sub-sectors (watches, jewelry, perfumes) — up to +5 percentage points on the red band threshold
- Formula data is re-extracted from Qiwa when MHRSD publishes a new phase, and every sector page shows when it was last verified
Official References
Bottom line
Accurate Nitaqat calculation depends on applying the correct logarithmic formula with year-specific constants and salary multipliers. With the 2026-2028 phase bringing annual changes and stricter profession rules, the margin for error is smaller than ever.